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The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.

Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter.
I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework.
The Four Horsemen:
  1. Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
  2. NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
  3. The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
  4. Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Honorable Mentions:
  1. Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later!

Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
  1. I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
  2. Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
  3. I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

I'm making a video targeting right-wingers - Please critique and give feedback ASAP before I commit to recording? "Axiomatic Warfare and the Fatal Flaws of Modern Fascism"

[Video Essay Script] - Links will be used in video as images and segments. https://docs.google.com/document/d/12OX9TTfLhgNEfdDaMWfsHYyAMzTx9G7bSwu_0Ke1Ksc/edit?usp=sharing

Introduction to Modern Fascism

“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”- Nazi Propagandists, Joseph Goebbels.

Axioms are our base assumptions about the world. They act as filters for new information coming into our consciousness.
In classic philosophy, an axiom is a statement that is so evident or well-established, that it is accepted without controversy or question. As used in modern logic, an axiom is a premise or starting point for reasoning.
We use these axiomatic assumptions to build our internal models of the world around us. They allow us to compare new information we receive from the outside with our internal narratives, which helps us to decide whether to reject or accept that new information. They are, for want of a better world, your "common sense" beliefs.
So how do you go about changing a relatively normal person's core beliefs and base assumptions to the point of rejecting their fellow citizens as traitors, committing acts of murderous terrorist or vigilante violence like Fascist white supremacists running down protesters in acts of terror, ISIS beheadings or mass genocide?

Shock Treatment and Slow Repetition

When I was a child I was subjected to regular mental and physical abuse from my dad. I would also see my mother repeatedly beaten up and then flee to a women's refuge where I would stay with her.
Each time my mom left, whenever I visited my dad at weekends, he would constantly try to pressure and manipulate me into convincing my mom to get back together with him.
This never worked of course. But what it did do, is make me highly sensitive to manipulation techniques.
I was fascinated by people like the magician Derren Brown and the economist Naomi Klein - who both reveal the tricks of the trade used in the advertising and marketing industries to convince people.
One way of changing people into killing machines or obedient sheep is through a big shock to the system, like how electroshock therapy allows for a clean slate to rebuild peoples intern mental models.
Psychedelics are another way, having a similar effect in the brain. Encouraged by the alt right and alt-light influencers like Jordan Peterson and Rebel Wisdom as they try to “Red Pill” people (an expression taken from the film The Matrix as a metaphor for revealing revealing the truth about the world).
They use this shock and disorientation as a way to prepare a “blank-slate” in order to rebuild peoples internal axiomatic models with different core beliefs.
Remaking people by shocking them into obedience and gas-lighting them about their existing internal models, making them seem irrational, silly or outdated. Reducing them to a mental state of a child and then rebuilding them with a new ideology and worldview, known as “shock therapy”.
As Naomi Klein explains in The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, these techniques work on larger scales with use of trauma and shock to influence political outcomes has been used since at least Milton Friedman coined the term “Economic Shock Treatment”. He advised that politicians push through painful and unpopular policies all at once during a time of crisis, before people could regain their footing.
The technique is used in economic markets on the large scale, and also against individuals on a small scale with individuals too. Economics and politics is just human interaction on a larger scale, after all.
Regular repetition and gentle suggestions of ideas can also instil new axiomatic models and core beliefs into people's minds. As Derren Brown demonstrates how powerful subtly suggestions can be alone, without the need for hypnosis, shocks or drugs.
But used in combination, shock and repetition can shift people until they have moved their positions, perceptions and beliefs about the world, to a place they could never have imagined.
But luckily once you deconstruct the deception and understand how the trick works, the illusion falls apart.

Defining and Deconstructing Modern Fascism

Firstly, we must define Modern Fascism. Modern Fascism ticks every box of the traditional definitions in Umberto Eco’s essay Ur-Fascism, and not only does it fulfil every criteria, it reveals other motivational forces and has evolved to include new aspects, and has changed into something worse, while it’s main weakness remain the same - the fact that it is primarily motivated by weakness.
As General Franco said in a 1938 interview with Henri Massis: "Fascism presents, wherever it manifests itself, characteristics which are varied to the extent that countries and national temperaments vary. It is essentially a defensive reaction of the organism, a manifestation of the desire to live, of the desire not to die, which at certain times seizes a whole people. So each people reacts in its own way, according to its conception of life… What can it have in common with Hitlerism, which was, above all, a reaction against the state of things created by the defeat, and by the abdication and the despair that followed it?"
This quote perfectly illustrates the transient nature of the ideology, but also the core motivations of Fascism. It is an ideology based on the assumption of weakness which yearns for restoration of a past greatness or to get revenge and recognition. But the way that it manifests itself is different in each place it takes hold.
Therefore the aim of this isn’t to make the case that any particular party or country has embraced out-right fascism (plenty of other people have made that case already), the aim is to reveal the underlying motivations, highlight threats and weaknesses and analyse the less obvious negative effects of Modern Fascism.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes

A false equivalence that is often used is that Liberal Imperialism is just the same as Fascism. And while it is true that imperialists use fascist dictators to extract cheap labour and resources and also dominate smaller counties in a similar way to how fascist empires aspire to rule, the key difference is that the populations of those countries are not gripped by the same fear based delusions.
And therefore more Liberal democracies are better equipped to hold their imperial position of power long term because they are better able to assess risks and react accordingly, rather than over-react based on paranoia and competing egos under excessive pressure.
This false equivalence was also used in 1930’s Germany, because far-left Communists had been co opted and infiltrated by Fascists. They would repeat the mantra that “the Social Democrats were the real racists”.
Contrary to the assumptions of most people, Fascism, as an ideology and political system of government is very distinct to white supremacy. It does of course include white supremecists, but In fact includes many other groups who have been co-opted by Fascist propaganda, or who implicitly support and enable their agenda.
Examples of modern opposition which has been repeatedly infiltrated or just simply made up by Fascists include innumerable conspiracy theories, police groups like Blue Lives Matter, militant Black nationalists, the Boogaloo movement who call for a race war, the “Proud Boys” and even sometimes supposed Anarchists, far-left Communists and Left Accelerationists.

Motivations of Fascism

Fascism distilled down to its core reason for existing is the suppression of opposition who represent workers rights and economic justice. So they patently DON’T look after their own people. They con them into submission of the state by generating jingoistic fear of “the other” - whoever is convenient on that day to blame for their problems.
Fascism is is an economic shock doctrine upon the inhabitants of the country. We don't spread fascist propaganda in tip-pot dictators because we care about the indiginous people there. We install Fascist dictators in order to remove workers rights and open up access to their natural resources.
Artificial moral panics can be engineered and real disasters used to allow corrupt oligarchs and financial predators to consolidate power further by buying up small innovative businesses who don’t have the excess capital to survive the turmoil on their own without external support. Or as a way to eradicate public services by sabotaging them and building mistrust.
They are used to erode faith in public services and institutions by rich people who simply want to pay less tax and don’t see why they should subsidise other human beings who haven’t had the same luck as them. So a major motivation of fascism is to suppress the opposition left-wing party who represent workers rights and egalitarian freedoms.
Populists claim to be against free trade and to some extent they are, but whatever they do will fail because they are interfering with the markets, so they will retreat to the power of market domination. They use their threats of trade barriers as more just more shock treatment for markets, rather than protecting actual jobs or industries.
This is a trick that has been played by Neoliberals too. But while Neoliberals use fascism as a tool for opening markets to Imperialism, they differ from Libertarians, not only because they embrace guns and weed, but they are starting from different positions to achieve the same goal;
Neoliberals seek to remove already existing public services and workers rights that lift bargaining power. But Libertarians want to STOP the government from ever providing those services and investments into the poor or enshrining workers rights.

Modern Fascist Ideology has TWO Core Reasons to Exist; Fear and Freed.

I have been researching and analysing how economic systems differ, using a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads). For each economic system I tried to be as neutral, fair and balanced as possible - which included Fascism.
I might seem strange that someone who is anti-Fascist would want to explore the strenghts and opportunities of Fascist ideologies, but in doing so it reveals the real weaknesses and threats which are too important for us to ignore.
So what exactly IS Fascism? Is it just an economic doctrine or a personal philosophy about the world? The answer is both.
The ideology has TWO core reasons to exist, and TWO distinct audiences types - with one based primarily on fear and the other greed, with each having a malignant and symbiotic relationship with each other.
Fear - Authoritarian/Conservative Fascists
Greed - Libertarian Fascists
There are very few people who actually buy into full Fascist ideology, most believe a watered down version of which resembles Conservatism or right-wing populism or accelerationism, and most of them genuinely believe they aren’t fascist, even though they are being constantly fed subtle suggestions fascist ideology or that align with their plans.
But the most ironic thing is that these groups are mostly being used by the second group of rich Libertarians globalist elites pulling a confidence trick on the host nation. Often posing “anti-establishment” conspiracists who actually uphold the establishment through misinformation. See: Russia Today and Youtube Bitcoin and Gold shills who subtly suggest fascist talking points.
With those rich Libertarians at the top more than happy for those below them, who they deem less worthy, living in even more delusional ideologies with fake enemies to fear, often resembling traditional Christian but values wrapped in modern conspiracies with added elements of “satanic panic”.
Modern Fascism has clearly inspired the modern day equivalents of Brownshirts and Blackshirts, self-styled vigilantes like QAnon, The Proud Boys and “The Boogaloo” - white nationalist violent extremists who want to accelerate towards a full-on race war.
It has also infiltrated numerous alternative groups, such as hyper-evangelical “end times” cults, alternative health scenes, internet conspiracy scenes like flat earth and occult magic.

Lockdown Conspiracies

A commonly missing hallmark of fascism that is present in history during the rise of fascism is a controlled opposition and explicit suppression of opposition. This distorts a healthy society and has unforeseen consequences and blowback.
Fantasies and political thought bubbles are self delusional custom realities resembling an episode of Black Mirror. They act as coping and escape mechanisms. Especially during the Covid 19 lock-down, these tendencies have gone into overdrive with massive events entering the real world featuring David Ike leading protesters alongside fascists as people ignore rising Fascism, climate change destruction and Covid deaths tolls.
Using disasters like Covid or irrational scare tactics such as the "Satanic Panic" style Fascist propaganda from QAnon, can shock people using their fear and disgust response, while making them distrust the news - allowing the government to evade valid criticism from experts while suggesting to people that government public services are inherently evil or Communist.
This type of propaganda is a Libertarians wet dream - making a population not only give up on tax funded public services, but actively fear them. An example is Trump trying to discredit and defund the US Postal Service and other public institutions and regulatory bodies.
Anti Semitism has been used throughout history by those in power to provoke an “us vs. them” mentality, leading to today's establishment still sanctioning and allowing Qanon on major media platforms, provoking and agitating terrorist attackers from the far-left and the far-right.
Those in power in fascist regimes allow and encourage mistrust in the mainstream media, while the long-tail niche political and interest groups keep people separated from each other, who each live in their own custom realities while the real elites continue to dominate and increase their power.
With each bubble framing realities based of identity, race, class, nationality, or even subculture special interests like alternative medicine and “gamer bro” culture, so that when they interact in real life or online, they are speaking past each other because they don’t even agree on the basic principles of how they view society.

The Fatal Flaws of Living in a Fantasy

While the main flaws and weaknesses of Fascism remain the same, they are in-fact exacerbated by this new hybrid model. It’s main weakness is the very fact that it is motivated by weaknesses, fear and greed - rather than true strength, self-confidence or heroic benevolent power, as their adherents like to believe.
A misconception of fascists themselves that it is based on strength, when it is actually based on weakness - even when the driving force is greed rather than fear. Libertarian fascists want to extract labour and materials at cheaper prices, while inflating their own asset values.
In other words; international financiers with little allegiance to any country. Ironically the very type of people who Conservative fascists claim to be opposed to.
Fascism claims to make society more successful, but it actually accelerates the destruction of the culture, country or people, rather than preserving and conserving it, because it betrays a fundamental weakness of insecurity. Competitors and rivals can easily see through the charade of and take advantage.
If anything does the exact opposite. Russian and China are clearly goading Western nations into becoming more divided and totalitarian, as they themselves benefit from becoming more Liberal and open and reap the competitive advantages that brings. See Kraut’s excellent video about Trump on China as an example.
Keynesian investment in the country and people, giving workers more rights, opportunities and a more bargaining power is what makes a country successful and innovative, rather than the faux Keynesian policy of giving kickbacks to corrupt officials for government contracts and widening inequality by supporting the already rich, rather than the ordinary people.

Who Benefits in This Memetic War?

Who is going to war with who? Who is winning? A modern adage is that tankies are just fascists because of their support of authoritarian proto-fascist leaders and regimes who often claim to be Communist.
But from my experience talking to actual fascists, they crave a more multi-polar world where other strong leaders rise up as competition and form alliances with dictators.
So to me, it looks like Fascists are the real Tankies; wishing our enemies be stronger and wanting to accelerate towards race war or civil war that weakens the society.
Not only did Donald Trump have knowledge of Russia allowing ISIS bounties on US troops and withhold that from the public while courting Putin, I have personally heard white supremacists backing extremists Islamists in Discord servers.
Trump jumped to the defense of the people who put a 17 year old with a gun against civil rights protesters and assumed the intent before saying that the outcome should be decided by the legal system.
They share common values and beliefs like Anti Semitism, accelerationist end-times fantasies, patriarchal traditional values and a fear of outside progressive cultures. In fact modern extremists white supremecist groups share recruitment and terrorist strategies and tactics with militant islamists.
You could argue that it was inflicted by Russian or Imperialist propagandists onto the German people in order to take control of larger areas of Europe after the destabilisation of war.
Hitler and Stalin came to a non agression truce called The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, which as was a secret non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those two powers to partition Poland between them.
The pact, signed in Moscow on 23 August 1939 by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov was officially known as the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
They divided Poland under the banner of fighting “Polish Fascism” nearly a century ago with both sides ultimately lying to their own people about spreading freedom while being authoritarian to their core and being able to blame “the other” as being the cause of all their problems.
But these days fascism seems to be a rogue meme that no longer serves any particular group. It is pathologically damaging to any society that it happens to grip.
Even the aforementioned Libertarians and accelerationists who think they are benefiting are only temporarily gaining by market price volatility. They ultimately lose through the blowback effect of the whirlpool they create.

Psychopathy, Alienation Nihilism and Insecurity

It is well established that Fascist dictators are driven by psychopathic characters and tendencies. They either don’t care about the truth, or disregard it if it’s not convenient to their narrative.
In totalitarian despotic societies facts are reversed. As George Orwell proclaimed throughout his writings; “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”.
Similar to how authoritarian Starlinist Communists harnessed people’s alienation and tricked them into thinking that it’s possible for the state to fully decommodify everything without having markets, money to account for things, domination or hierarchy or try to convince people that a revolution is just around the corner.
But of course, a council representative is still the head of an organisation, for all intents and purposes, because they wield executive power over others, even if the name has changed. Markets are emergent properties when groups of humans want or need a certain commodity when it becomes available.
But while both Communist and Fascist ideologies are based on lies that harness peoples alienation, fear and envy, Fascism is also especially to the weak. It is attractive to those who want to be strong again (or were never to begin with), or those who want to have a strong leader to help them.
Fascism betrays to others the inherent weakness. Like the insecure kid in school who lashes out - others around can see that it is because of their own insecurity which makes them appear even weaker. Fascism is a psychopathy driven by insecurity.
When people become so absorbed in an ideology there is a phenomena of people to self identify as an actual ideology? This produces a phenomena called Identity Protective Cognition, where people's self worth becomes attached to a belief system or ideology. So that when new information contradicts their worldview it is seen as an attack on the person themselves.
Therefore irrational, emotional quick fix thinking is the default when there is too much pressure and they feel attacked. They no longer use their slow effortful reflective thinking. (See Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow)
This approach has parallels in evolutionary biology, in which a central issue is the ability to adapt to changing environments. Competency - over-competitiveness in management causes chaos which STOPS hierarchies of competence. (Insert video clips of Sapolsky on Chaos vs Reductionism etc. timestamps linked).
Fascists try to reduce variability in culture and outcomes - causes weakness of less adaptability - because as Sapolsky explains, the variability is not just noise in that type of system CAS (Complex Adaptive Systems) - the variability IS the system. It is fractal and scale free. The noise and variability is an intrinsic part of the system.
But the system doesn’t function properly when the agreed-upon parameters that individuals believe to be true aren’t universal enough to have any form of group coherence.
Birds and swarms of animals can produce amazing complex phenomena, which are greater than the sum of their individual parts. There is a “network effect” once a certain threshold and certain conditions and rules are met.
These rules can be very simple, like repulsion or attraction, or staying a certain distance apart while traveling in a similar direction, but collectively they create patterns that emerge with complexity and I dear say, a certain amount of beauty.
So what happens when millions of people are being brainwashed and misled by cults that are leaving them with a reduced ability to make decisions?
Giving them shit-for-brains just so that some rich people at the top can pay a few percentage less tax? That is the sign of a deeply sick system that cannot continue to function effectively. It is sick on so many levels.

Emergence, Complexity and Human Evolution - A Social-Biological Analysis

The problem with viewing the world through only one lens of analysis (or bucket of knowledge) is that you can fall into unnecessarily reductive thinking. (Sapolsky clips)
I describe myself as a philosophical anarchist. Which does NOT mean I want total chaos and disorder - it means I want the optimal solution to emerge - including the influences and experiences from the bottom-up.
I also think that a bottom-up (or anarchist) lens of analysis is necessary for society to run cohesively in an optimal state. If it is repressed it distorts the overall picture of reality for everyone - similar to a CEO that doesn’t listen to employees and workers on the ground.
I interpret as constantly holding authority to account - to justify its existence and reason for dominating others. I also believe it is every citizen's responsibility to hold authority to account. This would be necessary under ANY economic system or society.
Anarchists also believe in stigmenric, rhizomatic action to make the world better, organically, not from a top-down authority, which fascism seeks to instill on society.
Human beings are collectively parts of a bigger chaotic but stable system known as a CAS (Complex Adaptive System). CAS’s are chaotic systems that can reach periodic steady states of equilibrium.
As Professor Sapolsky explains, humans uniquely exist with a mixture of both communal and individualistic tendencies; known in the scientific world as Tournament vs. pair bonding.
All the evidence suggests that this tendency has greatly improved our success as a species. But those tendencies distorted too far one way or another lead to pathologies and the worst collective misdeeds and wars.
Because as Professor Sapolsky also explains in his brilliant lecture series (which I have condensed the pertinent parts of into a 4 part YouTube video) about CAS; the signals coming from the randomness is being suppressed or repressed, it interferes with the functioning of the system.
Pressure in the system makes the patterns more complex but at a certain point of increasing pressure in the complex system, it stops being linear and the doubling of patterns and periodicity totally stops. Order completely begins to break down because of the butterfly effect.
Fascist regimes fettishise order and rigidity but in a complex adaptive system, the noise IS the phenomena, not a byproduct to be discarded, ignored or repressed.
The majority of people on the right genuinely want to help society by bringing order, using top-down draconian measures if necessary. Whereas the left generally wants to help society by proactively building from the bottom up.
I think both of these approaches are necessary to be balanced properly for a healthy functioning society to emerge.
It seems our tendency to harness both traits and to focus intently on one or the other is our greatest collective strength, while also being our greatest weakness.
And similarly, on an individual level I believe our greatest strengths and weakness are the fact that our brains work efficiently by categorising information to filter out the unimportant bits that slow us down.
As the book by Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow, brilliantly explains, slow deliberate, consideration thinking takes energy and time, so our brains developed filters which come out as biases. This is an inherent weakness of the human brain.
Now imagine the butterfly effect on the life of just one person who is influenced by the brainworms of QAnon cults or conspiracies which distorts their internal models of the world which they use to filter information about the world
The sad and shocking stories on forums like QanonCasualties show the devastating effects on their close friends, family and work life - amplified by their ever increasingly disconnected lives. (insert Flat earther clip - zoom in on idiot rolling head)
Now scale that up to the level of a whole of a society, a country, or the world? This is a collective madness to cope with and avoid the reality facing us as a species.
Only collective action with agreed basic facts to work from will do to avoid the total descent into actual chaos and destruction.

TLDR; Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this essay I will have put forward the case for the following four key arguments being true and I have present supporting evidence to explain the logical reasoning for why our current definitions need updating and the threat levels reassed, from a non-hysterical but critical perspective. The overall claims I made are:
  1. Modern Fascism has taken over right-wing populism and bears all the hallmarks of early 20th Century Fascist ideologies.
  2. The ideology has two main reasons to exist, and two distinct audiences which both have a symbiotic, pathological relationship with each other.
  3. The main flaws and weaknesses of fascist ideology remain the same as ever - that fascism is motivated by irrational fears, greed and self deception.
  4. Modern Fascism has major unforeseen damaging consequences for individuals, governments, organisational dynamics, and society at large.
This reality is something I think a lot of fascists, ultra-nationalists and people who have been influenced by the propaganda know deep down on some level already - that they are avoiding the realities of pandemics and ecological harms of ignoring science and reality as it is.
They ignore it because fantasies are simpler to understand. And a narrative based on fear of the other is a simpler way to to process a complex world.
It is also attractive to the part of us that is drawn to conflict and drama - that hunger for something genuinely interesting to happen.
But I would argue from my experience that the beautiful complexity of life in all it’s shades of grey is much more interesting, fun and genuinely fulfilling to understand and engage in, even if it might be harder to deal with and even harder to explain.
I believe doing so is also vital for the very survival of our species - we can no longer afford to live in a fantasy, we need to collectively take responsibility for the world as it exists in reality.
Thank you to my two Patrons:
Carmen Jongepier
E.V. Roske
Original Script on Patreon
submitted by Upper-Range to BreadTube [link] [comments]

[In Progress] [4500] [Factual] Axiomatic Warfare and the Fatal Flaws of Modern Fascism / Video Essay - please critique and proofread

[Video Essay Script] - Links will be used in video as images and segments. https://docs.google.com/document/d/12OX9TTfLhgNEfdDaMWfsHYyAMzTx9G7bSwu_0Ke1Ksc/edit?usp=sharing

Introduction to Modern Fascism

“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”- Nazi Propagandists, Joseph Goebbels.

Axioms are our base assumptions about the world. They act as filters for new information coming into our consciousness.
In classic philosophy, an axiom is a statement that is so evident or well-established, that it is accepted without controversy or question. As used in modern logic, an axiom is a premise or starting point for reasoning.
We use these axiomatic assumptions to build our internal models of the world around us. They allow us to compare new information we receive from the outside with our internal narratives, which helps us to decide whether to reject or accept that new information. They are, for want of a better world, your "common sense" beliefs.
So how do you go about changing a relatively normal person's core beliefs and base assumptions to the point of rejecting their fellow citizens as traitors, committing acts of murderous terrorist or vigilante violence like Fascist white supremacists running down protesters in acts of terror, ISIS beheadings or mass genocide?

Shock Treatment and Slow Repetition

One way of changing people into killing machines or obedient sheep is through a big shock to the system, like how electroshock therapy allows for a clean slate to rebuild peoples intern mental models.
Psychedelics encouraged by the alt right and alt-light like Jordan Peterson and Rebel Wisdom as they “Red Pill” people - another way to prepare a “blank-slate” to rebuild peoples internal axiomatic models.
Remaking people, shocking them into obedience and by gas-lighting them about their existing internal models, making them seem irrational, silly or outdated. Reducing them to a mental state of a child and then rebuilding them with a new ideology and worldview, known as “shock therapy”.
As Naomi Klein explains in The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, these techniques work on larger scales with use of trauma and shock to influence political outcomes has been used since at least Milton Friedman coined the term “Economic Shock Treatment”. He advised that politicians push through painful and unpopular policies all at once during a time of crisis, before people could regain their footing.
The technique is used in economic markets on the large scale, and also against individuals on a small scale. Economics and politics is just human interaction on a larger scale, after all.
Regular repetition and gentle suggestions of ideas can also instil new axiomatic models and core beliefs into people's minds. As Derren Brown demonstrates how powerful suggestion can be, or the multi-billion dollar marketing and advertising industries demonstrates.
Used in combination, shock and repetition can shift until you have moved to positions, perceptions and beliefs to a place you never could have imagined yourself. But luckily once you deconstruct the deception and understand how the trick works, the illusion falls apart.

Defining and Deconstructing Modern Fascism

Firstly, we must define Modern Fascism. Modern Fascism ticks every box of the traditional definitions in Umberto Eco’s essay Ur-Fascism, and not only does it fulfil every criteria, it reveals other motivational forces and has evolved to include new aspects, and has changed into something worse, while it’s main weakness remain the same - the fact that it is primarily motivated by weakness.
As General Franco said in a 1938 interview with Henri Massis: "Fascism presents, wherever it manifests itself, characteristics which are varied to the extent that countries and national temperaments vary. It is essentially a defensive reaction of the organism, a manifestation of the desire to live, of the desire not to die, which at certain times seizes a whole people. So each people reacts in its own way, according to its conception of life… What can it have in common with Hitlerism, which was, above all, a reaction against the state of things created by the defeat, and by the abdication and the despair that followed it?"
This quote perfectly illustrates the transient nature of the ideology, but also the core motivations of Fascism. It is an ideology based on the assumption of weakness which yearns for restoration of a past greatness or to get revenge and recognition. But the way that it manifests itself is different in each place it takes hold.
Therefore the aim of this isn’t to make the case that any particular party or country has embraced out-right fascism (plenty of other people have made that case already), the aim is to reveal the underlying motivations, highlight threats and weaknesses and analyse the less obvious negative effects of Modern Fascism.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes

A false equivalence that is often used is that Liberal Imperialism is just the same as Fascism. And while it is true that imperialists use fascist dictators to extract cheap labour and resources and also dominate smaller counties in a similar way to how fascist empires aspire to rule, the key difference is that the populations of those countries are not gripped by the same fear based delusions.
And therefore more Liberal democracies are better equipped to hold their imperial position of power long term because they are better able to assess risks and react accordingly, rather than over-react based on paranoia and competing egos under excessive pressure.
This false equivalence was also used in 1930’s Germany, because far-left Communists had been co opted and infiltrated by Fascists. They would repeat the mantra that “the Social Democrats were the real racists”.
Contrary to the assumptions of most people, Fascism, as an ideology and political system of government is very distinct to white supremacy. It does of course include white supremecists, but In fact includes many other groups who have been co-opted by Fascist propaganda, or who implicitly support and enable their agenda.
Examples of modern opposition which has been repeatedly infiltrated or just simply made up by Fascists include innumerable conspiracy theories, police groups like Blue Lives Matter, militant Black nationalists, the Boogaloo movement who call for a race war, the “Proud Boys” and even sometimes supposed Anarchists, far-left Communists and Left Accelerationists.

Motivations of Fascism

Fascism distilled down to its core reason for existing is the suppression of opposition who represent workers rights and economic justice. So they patently DON’T look after their own people. They con them into submission of the state by generating jingoistic fear of “the other” - whoever is convenient on that day to blame for their problems.
Fascism is is an economic shock doctrine upon the inhabitants of the country. We don't spread fascist propaganda in tip-pot dictators because we care about the indiginous people there. We install Fascist dictators in order to remove workers rights and open up access to their natural resources.
Artificial moral panics can be engineered and real disasters used to allow corrupt oligarchs and financial predators to consolidate power further by buying up small innovative businesses who don’t have the excess capital to survive the turmoil on their own without external support. Or as a way to eradicate public services by sabotaging them and building mistrust.
They are used to erode faith in public services and institutions by rich people who simply want to pay less tax and don’t see why they should subsidise other human beings who haven’t had the same luck as them. So a major motivation of fascism is to suppress the opposition left-wing party who represent workers rights and egalitarian freedoms.
Populists claim to be against free trade and to some extent they are, but whatever they do will fail because they are interfering with the markets, so they will retreat to the power of market domination. They use their threats of trade barriers as more just more shock treatment for markets, rather than protecting actual jobs or industries.
This is a trick that has been played by Neoliberals too. But while Neoliberals use fascism as a tool for opening markets to Imperialism, they differ from Libertarians, not only because they embrace guns and weed, but they are starting from different positions to achieve the same goal;
Neoliberals seek to remove already existing public services and workers rights that lift bargaining power. But Libertarians want to STOP the government from ever providing those services and investments into the poor or enshrining workers rights.

Modern Fascist Ideology has TWO Core Reasons to Exist; Fear and Freed.

I have been researching and analysing how economic systems differ, using a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads). For each economic system I tried to be as neutral, fair and balanced as possible - which included Fascism.
I might seem strange that someone who is anti-Fascist would want to explore the strenghts and opportunities of Fascist ideologies, but in doing so it reveals the real weaknesses and threats which are too important for us to ignore.
So what exactly IS Fascism? Is it just an economic doctrine or a personal philosophy about the world? The answer is both.
The ideology has TWO core reasons to exist, and TWO distinct audiences types - with one based primarily on fear and the other greed, with each having a malignant and symbiotic relationship with each other.
Fear - Authoritarian/Conservative Fascists
Greed - Libertarian Fascists
There are very few people who actually buy into full Fascist ideology, most believe a watered down version of which resembles Conservatism or right-wing populism or accelerationism, and most of them genuinely believe they aren’t fascist, even though they are being constantly fed subtle suggestions fascist ideology or that align with their plans.
But the most ironic thing is that these groups are mostly being used by the second group of rich Libertarians globalist elites pulling a confidence trick on the host nation. Often posing “anti-establishment” conspiracists who actually uphold the establishment through misinformation. See: Russia Today and Youtube Bitcoin and Gold shills who subtly suggest fascist talking points.
With those rich Libertarians at the top more than happy for those below them, who they deem less worthy, living in even more delusional ideologies with fake enemies to fear, often resembling traditional Christian but values wrapped in modern conspiracies with added elements of “satanic panic”.
Modern Fascism has clearly inspired the modern day equivalents of Brownshirts and Blackshirts, self-styled vigilantes like QAnon, The Proud Boys and “The Boogaloo” - white nationalist violent extremists who want to accelerate towards a full-on race war.
It has also infiltrated numerous alternative groups, such as hyper-evangelical “end times” cults, alternative health scenes, internet conspiracy scenes like flat earth and occult magic.

Lockdown Conspiracies

A commonly missing hallmark of fascism that is present in history during the rise of fascism is a controlled opposition and explicit suppression of opposition. This distorts a healthy society and has unforeseen consequences and blowback.
Fantasies and political thought bubbles are self delusional custom realities resembling an episode of Black Mirror. They act as coping and escape mechanisms. Especially during the Covid 19 lock-down, these tendencies have gone into overdrive with massive events entering the real world featuring David Ike leading protesters alongside fascists as people ignore rising Fascism, climate change destruction and Covid deaths tolls.
Using disasters like Covid or irrational scare tactics such as the "Satanic Panic" style Fascist propaganda from QAnon, can shock people using their fear and disgust response, while making them distrust the news - allowing the government to evade valid criticism from experts while suggesting to people that government public services are inherently evil or Communist.
This type of propaganda is a Libertarians wet dream - making a population not only give up on tax funded public services, but actively fear them. An example is Trump trying to discredit and defund the US Postal Service and other public institutions and regulatory bodies.
Anti Semitism has been used throughout history by those in power to provoke an “us vs. them” mentality, leading to today's establishment still sanctioning and allowing Qanon on major media platforms, provoking and agitating terrorist attackers from the far-left and the far-right.
Those in power in fascist regimes allow and encourage mistrust in the mainstream media, while the long-tail niche political and interest groups keep people separated from each other, who each live in their own custom realities while the real elites continue to dominate and increase their power.
With each bubble framing realities based of identity, race, class, nationality, or even subculture special interests like alternative medicine and “gamer bro” culture, so that when they interact in real life or online, they are speaking past each other because they don’t even agree on the basic principles of how they view society.

The Fatal Flaws of Living in a Fantasy

While the main flaws and weaknesses of Fascism remain the same, they are in-fact exacerbated by this new hybrid model. It’s main weakness is the very fact that it is motivated by weaknesses, fear and greed - rather than true strength, self-confidence or heroic benevolent power, as their adherents like to believe.
A misconception of fascists themselves that it is based on strength, when it is actually based on weakness - even when the driving force is greed rather than fear. Libertarian fascists want to extract labour and materials at cheaper prices, while inflating their own asset values.
In other words; international financiers with little allegiance to any country. Ironically the very type of people who Conservative fascists claim to be opposed to.
Fascism claims to make society more successful, but it actually accelerates the destruction of the culture, country or people, rather than preserving and conserving it, because it betrays a fundamental weakness of insecurity. Competitors and rivals can easily see through the charade of and take advantage.
If anything does the exact opposite. Russian and China are clearly goading Western nations into becoming more divided and totalitarian, as they themselves benefit from becoming more Liberal and open and reap the competitive advantages that brings. See Kraut’s excellent video about Trump on China as an example.
Keynesian investment in the country and people, giving workers more rights, opportunities and a more bargaining power is what makes a country successful and innovative, rather than the faux Keynesian policy of giving kickbacks to corrupt officials for government contracts and widening inequality by supporting the already rich, rather than the ordinary people.

Who Benefits in This Memetic War?

Who is going to war with who? Who is winning? A modern adage is that tankies are just fascists because of their support of authoritarian proto-fascist leaders and regimes who often claim to be Communist.
But from my experience talking to actual fascists, they crave a more multi-polar world where other strong leaders rise up as competition and form alliances with dictators.
So to me, it looks like Fascists are the real Tankies; wishing our enemies be stronger and wanting to accelerate towards race war or civil war that weakens the society.
Not only did Donald Trump have knowledge of Russia allowing ISIS bounties on US troops and withhold that from the public while courting Putin, I have personally heard white supremacists backing extremists Islamists in Discord servers.
Trump jumped to the defense of the people who put a 17 year old with a gun against civil rights protesters and assumed the intent before saying that the outcome should be decided by the legal system.
They share common values and beliefs like Anti Semitism, accelerationist end-times fantasies, patriarchal traditional values and a fear of outside progressive cultures. In fact modern extremists white supremecist groups share recruitment and terrorist strategies and tactics with militant islamists.
You could argue that it was inflicted by Russian or Imperialist propagandists onto the German people in order to take control of larger areas of Europe after the destabilisation of war.
Hitler and Stalin came to a non agression truce called The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, which as was a secret non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that enabled those two powers to partition Poland between them.
The pact, signed in Moscow on 23 August 1939 by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov was officially known as the Treaty of Non-Aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
They divided Poland under the banner of fighting “Polish Fascism” nearly a century ago with both sides ultimately lying to their own people about spreading freedom while being authoritarian to their core and being able to blame “the other” as being the cause of all their problems.
But these days fascism seems to be a rogue meme that no longer serves any particular group. It is pathologically damaging to any society that it happens to grip.
Even the aforementioned Libertarians and accelerationists who think they are benefiting are only temporarily gaining by market price volatility. They ultimately lose through the blowback effect of the whirlpool they create.

Psychopathy, Alienation Nihilism and Insecurity

It is well established that Fascist dictators are driven by psychopathic characters and tendencies. They either don’t care about the truth, or disregard it if it’s not convenient to their narrative.
In totalitarian despotic societies facts are reversed. As George Orwell proclaimed throughout his writings; “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”.
Similar to how authoritarian Starlinist Communists harnessed people’s alienation and tricked them into thinking that it’s possible for the state to fully decommodify everything without having markets, money to account for things, domination or hierarchy or try to convince people that a revolution is just around the corner.
But of course, a council representative is still the head of an organisation, for all intents and purposes, because they wield executive power over others, even if the name has changed. Markets are emergent properties when groups of humans want or need a certain commodity when it becomes available.
But while both Communist and Fascist ideologies are based on lies that harness peoples alienation, fear and envy, Fascism is also especially to the weak. It is attractive to those who want to be strong again (or were never to begin with), or those who want to have a strong leader to help them.
Fascism betrays to others the inherent weakness. Like the insecure kid in school who lashes out - others around can see that it is because of their own insecurity which makes them appear even weaker. Fascism is a psychopathy driven by insecurity.
When people become so absorbed in an ideology there is a phenomena of people to self identify as an actual ideology? This produces a phenomena called Identity Protective Cognition, where people's self worth becomes attached to a belief system or ideology. So that when new information contradicts their worldview it is seen as an attack on the person themselves.
Therefore irrational, emotional quick fix thinking is the default when there is too much pressure and they feel attacked. They no longer use their slow effortful reflective thinking. (See Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow)
This approach has parallels in evolutionary biology, in which a central issue is the ability to adapt to changing environments. Competency - over-competitiveness in management causes chaos which STOPS hierarchies of competence. (Insert video clips of Sapolsky on Chaos vs Reductionism etc. timestamps linked).
Fascists try to reduce variability in culture and outcomes - causes weakness of less adaptability - because as Sapolsky explains, the variability is not just noise in that type of system CAS (Complex Adaptive Systems) - the variability IS the system. It is fractal and scale free. The noise and variability is an intrinsic part of the system.
But the system doesn’t function properly when the agreed-upon parameters that individuals believe to be true aren’t universal enough to have any form of group coherence.
Birds and swarms of animals can produce amazing complex phenomena, which are greater than the sum of their individual parts. There is a “network effect” once a certain threshold and certain conditions and rules are met.
These rules can be very simple, like repulsion or attraction, or staying a certain distance apart while traveling in a similar direction, but collectively they create patterns that emerge with complexity and I dear say, a certain amount of beauty.
So what happens when millions of people are being brainwashed and misled by cults that are leaving them with a reduced ability to make decisions?
Giving them shit-for-brains just so that some rich people at the top can pay a few percentage less tax? That is the sign of a deeply sick system that cannot continue to function effectively. It is sick on so many levels.

Emergence, Complexity and Human Evolution - A Social-Biological Analysis

The problem with viewing the world through only one lens of analysis (or bucket of knowledge) is that you can fall into unnecessarily reductive thinking. (Sapolsky clips)
I describe myself as a philosophical anarchist. Which does NOT mean I want total chaos and disorder - it means I want the optimal solution to emerge - including the influences and experiences from the bottom-up.
I also think that a bottom-up (or anarchist) lens of analysis is necessary for society to run cohesively in an optimal state. If it is repressed it distorts the overall picture of reality for everyone - similar to a CEO that doesn’t listen to employees and workers on the ground.
I interpret as constantly holding authority to account - to justify its existence and reason for dominating others. I also believe it is every citizen's responsibility to hold authority to account. This would be necessary under ANY economic system or society.
Anarchists also believe in stigmenric, rhizomatic action to make the world better, organically, not from a top-down authority, which fascism seeks to instill on society.
Human beings are collectively parts of a bigger chaotic but stable system known as a CAS (Complex Adaptive System). CAS’s are chaotic systems that can reach periodic steady states of equilibrium.
As Professor Sapolsky explains, humans uniquely exist with a mixture of both communal and individualistic tendencies; known in the scientific world as Tournament vs. pair bonding.
All the evidence suggests that this tendency has greatly improved our success as a species. But those tendencies distorted too far one way or another lead to pathologies and the worst collective misdeeds and wars.
Because as Professor Sapolsky also explains in his brilliant lecture series (which I have condensed the pertinent parts of into a 4 part YouTube video) about CAS; the signals coming from the randomness is being suppressed or repressed, it interferes with the functioning of the system.
Pressure in the system makes the patterns more complex but at a certain point of increasing pressure in the complex system, it stops being linear and the doubling of patterns and periodicity totally stops. Order completely begins to break down because of the butterfly effect.
Fascist regimes fettishise order and rigidity but in a complex adaptive system, the noise IS the phenomena, not a byproduct to be discarded, ignored or repressed.
The majority of people on the right genuinely want to help society by bringing order, using top-down draconian measures if necessary. Whereas the left generally wants to help society by proactively building from the bottom up.
I think both of these approaches are necessary to be balanced properly for a healthy functioning society to emerge.
It seems our tendency to harness both traits and to focus intently on one or the other is our greatest collective strength, while also being our greatest weakness.
And similarly, on an individual level I believe our greatest strengths and weakness are the fact that our brains work efficiently by categorising information to filter out the unimportant bits that slow us down.
As the book by Daniel Kahneman - Thinking, Fast and Slow, brilliantly explains, slow deliberate, consideration thinking takes energy and time, so our brains developed filters which come out as biases. This is an inherent weakness of the human brain.
Now imagine the butterfly effect on the life of just one person who is influenced by the brainworms of QAnon cults or conspiracies which distorts their internal models of the world which they use to filter information about the world
The sad and shocking stories on forums like QanonCasualties show the devastating effects on their close friends, family and work life - amplified by their ever increasingly disconnected lives. (insert Flat earther clip - zoom in on idiot rolling head)
Now scale that up to the level of a whole of a society, a country, or the world? This is a collective madness to cope with and avoid the reality facing us as a species.
Only collective action with agreed basic facts to work from will do to avoid the total descent into actual chaos and destruction.

TLDR; Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this essay I will have put forward the case for the following four key arguments being true and I have present supporting evidence to explain the logical reasoning for why our current definitions need updating and the threat levels reassed, from a non-hysterical but critical perspective. The overall claims I made are:
  1. Modern Fascism has taken over right-wing populism and bears all the hallmarks of early 20th Century Fascist ideologies.
  2. The ideology has two main reasons to exist, and two distinct audiences which both have a symbiotic, pathological relationship with each other.
  3. The main flaws and weaknesses of fascist ideology remain the same as ever - that fascism is motivated by irrational fears, greed and self deception.
  4. Modern Fascism has major unforeseen damaging consequences for individuals, governments, organisational dynamics, and society at large.
This reality is something I think a lot of fascists, ultra-nationalists and people who have been influenced by the propaganda know deep down on some level already - that they are avoiding the realities of pandemics and ecological harms of ignoring science and reality as it is.
They ignore it because fantasies are simpler to understand. And a narrative based on fear of the other is a simpler way to to process a complex world.
It is also attractive to the part of us that is drawn to conflict and drama - that hunger for something genuinely interesting to happen.
But I would argue from my experience that the beautiful complexity of life in all it’s shades of grey is much more interesting, fun and genuinely fulfilling to understand and engage in, even if it might be harder to deal with and harder to explain.
I believe it is also vital for the very survival of our species.
Thank you to my two Patrons:
Carmen Jongepier
E.V. Roske
(PS, Please, please consider helping me directly as a one off or regularly through Patron to help me continue to make content like and turn it into a high quality video this while surviving, I have just been dumped by my long term partner, I have a long-term physical disability limiting me while struggling to claim the benefits I’m entitled to and have paid into all my life. I now need to move out because I can’t afford to live here anymore on my own. I needed to finish this project before I could get on with other things in my life but I desperately need to focus on fixing myself now I have got this out)
Original Script on Patreon
submitted by Upper-Range to BetaReaders [link] [comments]

Pitfalls of Granger Causality

Original post from blog.projectpiglet.com. However, because there is promotional activity, a text post was more appropriate, thank you Mod's for working with me.

Pitfalls of Granger Causality

One of the most common forms of analysis on the stock market is Granger Causality, which is a method for indicating one signal possibly causes another signal. This type of causality is often called “predictive causality”, as it does not for certain determine causality – it simply determines correlations at various time intervals.
Why Granger Causality? If you search “causality in the stock market“, you’ll be greeted with a list of links all mentioning “granger causality”:
Search on DuckDuckGo
In other words, it’s popular and Clive Granger won a Nobel on the matter[1]. That being said, there are quite a few limitations. In this article, we’ll be covering a brief example of Granger Causality, as well as some of the common pitfalls and how brittle it can be.

What is Granger Causality?

Granger Causality (from Wikipedia) is defined as:
A time series X is said to Granger-cause Y if it can be shown, usually through a series of t-tests and F-tests on lagged values of X (and with lagged values of Y also included), that those X values provide statistically significant information about future values of Y.
In other words, Granger Causality is the analysis of trying to find out if one signal impacts another signal (such that it’s statistically significant). Pretty straightforward, and is even clearer with an image:
From Wikipedia
n a sense, it’s just one spike in a graph causing another spike at a later time. The real challenge with this is that this needs to be consistent. It has to repeatedly do this over the source of the entire dataset. This brings us to the next part: one of the fragile aspects of this method is that it often doesn’t account for seasonality.

Granger Causality and Seasonality

One common aspect of markets is that they are seasonal. Commodities (as it relates to the futures market) related to food are extremely impacted by seasonality[2]. For instance, if there is a drought across Illinois and Indiana during the summer (killing the corn crop), then corn prices from Iowa would likely rise (i.e. the corn from Iowa would be worth more).
From Wikipedia
In the example, there may be decades where some pattern in the market holds and Granger Causality is relevant. For instance, during summer heat waves in Illinois, corn prices in Iowa increase. On the other hand, with the advent of irrigation methods that deliver water underground, heat waves may no longer impact crops[3]. Thus, the causality of heat waves in Illinois may no longer impact the corn prices in Iowa.
If we then attempt to search for Granger Causality on the entire time range (a) pre-irrigation and (b) post irrigation, we will find there is no causality!
However, during the pre-irrigation time range we will find probable causality, and for post-irrigation time range we likely won’t find probable causality. Any time you combine two timeframes like this, the default is no Granger Causality (unless it’s a very small portion of the dataset). Bringing us to the conclusion, that:
Granger Causality is very sensitive to timeframe(s)
Just a few data points in either direction can break the analysis. This makes sense, as it is a way to evaluate if two time series are related. However, it does lead one to note how brittle this method can be.

Granger Causality and Sparse Datasets

Yet another potential issue with Granger Causality is sparse datasets. Let’s say we have dataset X and dataset Y: if dataset X has 200 data points and data set Y as 150 data points, how do you merge them? Assuming they are in (datetime, value) format, if we do an inner join on “datetime”, we get something that looks like the following:
From W3School
Then we will have 150 data points in a combined X and Y dataset, i.e.: (datetime, x, y). Unforunately, this also means if the data is continuous (as most timeseries data is), then we have completely broke our Granger Causality analysis. In other words, we are just skipping over days, which would break any causality analysis.
In contrast, we could do an outer join:
From W3School
We will have 200 data points in a combined X and Y dataset. Again, there’s an issue – it means we probably have empty values (Null, NULL, None, NaN, etc. ) where the Y data set didn’t have data (recall Y only had 150 data points). The dataset would then have various entries that look as such: (datetime, x, NULL).
To fix the empty values, we can attempt to use a forward or back fill technique. A forward/back fill technique is where you fill all the empty values with the previous or following location(s) real value.
This code could look like the following:
From blog.projectpiglet.com
From the sound of it, this method sounds promising! You’ll end up with something that’s continuous with all real values. You’ll actually get a graph like this:
Change in BCH price vs Random Walk (with NaNs)
As you can see, there are large sections of time where the data is flat. Recall the seasonality issue with Granger Causality? This method of outer joins + forward / back filling will definitely cause issues, and lead to minimal to no meaningful correlations.
Sparse datasets make it very difficult (or impossible) to identify probable causality.

Granger Causality and Resampling

There is another option for us, and that is “resampling”. Where instead of just filling the empty values (Nulls / NaNs) with the previous or following real values, we actually resample the whole series). Resampling is a technique where we fill the holes in the data with what amounts to a guess of what we think the data could be.
Although there are quite a few techniques, in this example we’ll use the python package Scipy, with the Signal module.
From blog.projectpiglet.com
At first glance, this appears to have solved some of the issues:
Change in Bitcoin Price vs Random Walk
However, in reality it does not work; especially if the dataset starts or ends with NaN’s (at least when using the Scipy package):
Change in BCH price vs Random Walk (with NaNs)
If you notice, prior to the ~110 data point, the values are just oscillating up and down. The resampling method Scipy is using does not appear to be functional / practical with so few data points. This is because I selected data set for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and the date range is prior to Bitcoin Cash (BCH) becoming a currency (i.e. there is no price information).
In a sense, this indicates it’s not possible (at least given the data provided) to attempt Granger Causality on the given date ranges. Small gaps in time can have dramatic impacts on whether or not “probable causality” exists.
When determining Granger Causaily it is extremely important to have two complete overlapping datasets.
Without two complete datasets, it’s impossible to identify whether or not there are correlations over various time ranges.
Resampling can cause artifacts that impact the Granger Causality method(s).
In fact, the most recent example was actually positive for Granger Causality (p-value < 0.05)… That is the worst scenario, as it is a false positive. In the example, the false positive occurs because when both datasets are resampled they had a matching oscillation… it wouldn’t have even been noticed if the raw data sets weren’t being reviewed.
This is probably the largest issue with Granger Causality: every dataset needs to be reviewed to see if it makes sense. Sometimes what at first appears to make sense, in reality the underlying data has been altered in some way (such as resampling).

Granger Causality and Non-Linear Regression

Changing gears a bit (before we get to a real-world ProjectPiglet.com example), it’s important to note that most Granger Causality uses linear regression. In other words, the method is searching for linear correlations between datasets:
From austingwalters.com
However, in many cases – especially in the case of markets – correlations are highly likely to be non-linear. This is because markets are anti-inductive[5]. In other words, every pattern discovered in a market creates a new pattern as people exploit that inefficiency. This is called the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Ultimately, this means most implementations of Granger Causality are overly simplistic; as most correlations are certainly non-linear in nature. There are a large number of non-linear regression models, below is an example of Gaussian Process Regression:
From Wikipedia
Similar, non-linear regression techniques do appear to improve Granger Causality[6]. This is probably due to most linear correlations already being priced into the market and the non-linear correlations will be where the potential profits are. It remains to be seen how effective this can be, as most research in this area is kept private (increasing profits of trading firms). What we can say is that non-linear methods do improve predictions on ProjectPiglet.com. They also require a larger dataset than their linear regression counterparts.

Conclusion

Overall, Granger Causality has quite a few potential pitfalls. It is useful for indicating a potential correlation, but is only a probable correlation. It can help to identify market inefficiencies and open the opportunity to make money, but will probably require more finesse than simple linear regression.
All that being said, hope you’ve found some of the insights useful!
submitted by austingwalters to algotrading [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I got fired 3 week ago and got into depression, one of my best friends is a crypto trader. Instead of feeling shitty he want to teach me everything about crypto and he said that it might help me to understand the normal 9-6 job life is not the only way. here are the tips and resources he gave me:

i’m sharing it here because i’m sure that there are other people in my situation too and it will be great if i can help you exactly like how my friend helped me.
What i’m sharing here is what i wrote on my notebook while he was pitching the basics of crypto trading, I summarized it into few lists so it will be easier for you to follow:
General tips:
  1. If your mom send you a message asking “how to buy bitcoin”? it means you need to sell yours (not to her of course :P)
  2. Don’t put all your money on the exchange (he lost in the past some money on mt.gox).
  3. If you’re too lazy to print a paper wallet or so cheap you can’t buy Trezor, so don’t cry if you make some stupid mistakes and lose your login details/ get hacked.
  4. Don’t be afraid from charts, After you will get into trading you will find technical analysis like a children’s game, you just need to look for shapes and mark a line to understand where the risk is and than use your instincts, your brain(he claimed i don’t have any) and some useful new resources (i share them later on).
  5. there is too much information, if you will try to focus everything it will kill you and you will spend most of your profits on Advil. arrange yourself a useful resources and a comfortable working environment.
  6. Listen to Lofi while you trade/make decisions.
  7. don’t join random telegram groups or pump and dump groups. no-one open a traders group and invite you just because you have a beautiful smile. 97% of them have hidden interest. Try to attend for a local bitcoin meet up in your hometown or near by and than meet REAL people and REAL traders. Ask them if they have a friends traders group and ask to join, If they don’t agree say the
Trading tips:
  1. Altcoins - Vs. Bitcoin and Vs. USD: it's important to analyse the price against Bitcoin and against USD as well. Most major altcoins have huge USD trading
  2. What goes down – does not necessarily go up again: “I’ve seen Altcoins like Aurora which came down 99.99% of its record”.
  3. Day trading is a job. Consider the time spending on it when calculating your gains and losses.
  4. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket: Diversify your crypto portfolio, and it's not shame to hedge to cash sometimes
  5. don’t risk something you can’t afford to lose.
resources:
“Give a man a good signal and he made profit for day, Teach him how to trade and will make a profit for a day “ (I made it now… And I wonder why I got fired) :P
He shared with me many of his resources and said that I need to check them to understand which one are useful for me and which isn’t.
News & Educational Websites:
Educational, Learn about real companies that using smart contracts - https://medium.com/swarmdotmarket/5-companies-already-brilliantly-using-smart-contracts-ac49f3d5c431
BitcoinWiki* - It’s like wikipedia, but for bitcoins… https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page
CryptoCoinChart - a cool alternative to coinmarketcap https://cryptocoincharts.info/
ICO’s - Before investing in ICO you need to check few things:
Whitepapaer- Before you buy electronic product on Amazon do you read about it? do you do the research? Do the same when you invest in ICO. Read the Whitepaper to fully understand the idea and the potential
submitted by leftycatchersmit to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Encryption is No Longer an Option - Ways to Restore Your Natural Right to Privacy

Encryption is No Longer an Option
“If the State’s going to move against you, it’s going to move against you. Now, that doesn’t mean you need to be reckless of course. I’m awful careful you guys, and even my degree of care and control ultimately won’t be enough if they get mad enough. There will always be something…I’ve done what I hope is the best any man can do. So…I hope when they finally do get me, it’s obvious that they just made it up. I don’t go out of my way to make it easy.” – Cody Wilson
For all Anarchists our love for freedom unites us and guides us. I recently had a conversation with a mutual friend that Cody and I have in common and he stated something very insightful:
CryptoAnarchy is like the Lord of the Rings. You have to cooperate with people that you don’t know where they are or what they’re up to. That is, you just know that we are all figuring out at the same time on how to take down Sauron.
Anarchy is guided by the natural instinct for self-preservation. You can trust that others are also actively working in keeping us all free.
For us all to move into more synergistic cooperation we need more motivation. Nothing is more motivating than our movement away from an impending harmful evil. The persecution that Cody Wilson has gone through since he started his activism is testament to the evil that awaits the entire world if we do not fight against the impending digital global prison. Just note how easy it was to find Cody. Government indoctrinated brownshirts and surveillance are everywhere.
As Jeff recently said in London, “CryptoAnarchy is about the cryptography.” Cryptocurrency is only possible due to the privacy offered by cryptography. A true cryptocurrency is completely fungible, anonymous, and private. Blockchains without on-chain privacy set by default, are dangerous and offer nothing other than accurate surveillance.
That is, the moment you destroy a coin’s fungibility you corrupt its incentive structure. This is because you would then have two classes of the same coin within a transparent blockchain; these are coins that are “tainted” or “untainted” according to government. This differentiation created by blockchain surveillance leads “tainted” coins to be priced differently from “untainted” coins. Once this happens you destroy the functionality of a currency as a medium of exchange.
Imagine the headache of retailers in having to tell clients that they only accept “untainted” bitcoins. The result of not having a fungible medium of exchange is that you destroy the incentive structure of the network effect of a coin. You simply end up with a useless and unwanted network where value is supposed to be exchanged. If the units within the medium of exchange do not themselves contain the same value in the market, the utility of the network effect is destroyed.
The economic ramifications of non-fungible SurveillanceCoins are so bad that they make fiat currencies of central banks look good. In spite of their centralized proof of government violence, fiat currencies are more fungible and private than a coin based on a transparent blockchain.
For much time within crypto we would call the majority of blockchains as “pseudo-anonymous” because we knew the importance of fungibility. At that time blockchain analysis had not caught up to our technology. Now companies like Elliptic and Chainalysis have made the vast majority of blockchains in the market transparent.
Sadly, most blockchain communities have not upgraded their privacy to be on chain by default- making them transparent. However, some more intelligent communities- like Monero- are at the same time growing because they understand the importance of fungibility.
Please understand that we at TDV are ahead of the pack in understanding where all of this is going. The vast majority of people won’t tell you these harsh truths about the Blockchain space, but it is our moral imperative to inform you as best as possible.
As time goes on, we will continue to champion actual fungible CryptoCurrencies and we will continue to make clear distinctions between a SurveillanceCoin and an actual CryptoCurrency.
It is important that we take a step back from CryptoCurrencies and focus on just cryptography. You can never be too careful. Throughout our groups we have had various requests as to how to better use different wallets.
Yes, we will cover all of that in our upcoming surprise for our community, but what is most important is that you protect yourself at the network layer, your identity, and your communication.
CryptoAnarchy began way before Bitcoin. If you want to know what will be happening to CryptoCurrencies and CryptoAnarchy in the near future, you need to read Timothy C. May’s 1992 prophetic Crypto Anarchist Manifesto.
On reading this, you cannot afford to be idle regarding your privacy. This is not the time for you to easily give up what is most personal about you; your thoughts and identity. Your privacy is sacred. You need to protect your privacy as much as possible at all times. Don’t give into the defeatist notions of future technology being capable of deanonymizing any cryptography you currently use. Your goal is to be private right now in the present moment.
You are up against a global digital tyranny- that is already here!
...Cazes was not a US citizen and the Alphabay servers and Cazes were not caught on US soil. Just because crimes involving narcotic deals took place in America, weirdly enough, the US seemingly has the right above anyone to seize Cazes’ property, and charge him and his accomplices in US trials...
Use Secure Hardware That Protects You
Be paranoid. Stay paranoid. The more paranoid you are the better. Currently the five eyes are moving to strip away all of your privacy. They are on the direct path to force all companies to hand over back doors to software and hardware encryption.
This is a new breach on individual rights. The backdoors in hardware have existed since the 90’s via Trusted Computing and Digital Rights Management (DRM). The difference is that now companies will be fined and forced by governments (all governments) to open up backdoors for the surveillance of all- in both software and hardware. Australia is leading the charge since they are the only ones within the five eyes without a Bill of Rights.
If you really want to be secure, then you need to start with your hardware. Almost all laptops and hardware chips are engineered with unsafe software. These chips can transmit voice, your networking, pictures, and even video signals. Many of these chips are used to install spyware, malware and viruses.
The market has provided us with two easy plug-and-play hardware solutions.
Purism is a CryptoAnarchist company dedicated in offering us the safest computers in the market. Purism’s line of Librem Laptops is manufactured with software and hardware built from the ground up, where you can be at ease knowing there are no back doors built within it. They work with hardware component suppliers and the Free software community in making hardware that respects and protects your security. Every chip is individually selected with emphasis on respecting freedom. (Purism Librem laptops have built in Kill-Switches for your microphone/camera and wireless/Bluetooth)
All of the necessary components that you would have to bundle up together- by yourself- from a community vetted place like Prism-Break are already installed and ready to go within Librem laptops. Even if you were to install all of the necessary open-source encrypted alternatives, you still would not be able to 100% trust your current computer’s hardware.
Purism Librem laptops come with their own PureOS (operating system). Purism also offers compatibility with Qubes OS in a flash-drive (similar to Tails) to give you even another layer of protection on top of PureOS. Qubes OS is what Edward Snowden uses. PureOs is a derivative of Debian GNU/Linux. Qubes is free and open-source software (FOSS).
Purism is currently having a pre-sale for their first phone the Librem 5.
Another popular safe hardware computer market alternative is ORWL. ORWL is a desktop PC. ORWL comes with a physical encryption key that looks like a keychain. If anyone ever tries to physically tamper with the ORWL computer, sensors will automatically detect the intrusion and erase everything. ORWL comes with the operating system options of Qubes OS, Ubuntu, or Windows.
ORWL does not receive payment for their products in Crypto. Purism on the other hand accepts payment in BitcoinCore, BitcoinCash, Litecoin, Ethereum, Decred, Dogecoin, and Monero.
ORWL is a good alternative for more computer savvy people. If you are not the most competent person with computers, Purism is the way to go. With Purism everything is ready to go.
Once you get good hardware don’t use this new computer for anything other than crypto stuff. That is, don’t use it with anything that requires your slave identity. Don’t access social media with your name, don’t access bank accounts, don’t access crypto exchanges, don’t access old email accounts, definitely don’t access anything that requires KYC and AML, and don’t access any identifying log-in that is related to any of your previous internet identities. Create new identities from scratch for this new computer.
Watch this video and learn about the basics on operational security (OPSEC). Take everything written here, and spoken at the conference in the video above, as barely the preliminary basic requirements of OPSEC. You should definitely continue your own research upon getting your new secure hardware computer.
(It would be best if you purchased this computer using crypto- Monero preferably- and have it mailed to a mailing address not associated with any of your addresses; think along the lines of JJ Luna).
Encrypt Your Communication
“This generation being born now... is the last free generation.You are born and either immediately or within say a year you are known globally. Your identity in one form or another –coming as a result of your idiotic parents plastering your name and photos all over Facebook or as a result of insurance applications or passport applications– is known to all major world powers.” – Julian Assange
The vast majority of our community uses Facebook. Unfortunately its network effect is something we all rely on to some degree. Fortunately for us a friend of our community created FaceMask. Through FaceMask we can still use Facebook in complete privacy- away from Zuckerberg's prying eyes. In the near future we will implement FaceMask into our TDV groups as optional privacy for our posts. We will provide our subscribers with the keys necessary to encrypt and decrypt the messages and posts. Again, this is optional. For now please go to the link above and familiarize yourself with Facemask and its technology.
Don’t use Google. If you are using Google start transitioning out of it. If you are using Gmail, start moving towards encrypted services like ProtonMail or TutaNota. They both offer a free option, try them both out and choose your favorite. Use two factor authentication on everything that requires you to log-in that allows for the use of two factor authentication. Most people use Google Authenticator and Authy. I personally prefer the open source options of FreeOTP & andOTP. Use the one that you find best suited for you. Using one is paramount for security nowadays.
If you are one that uses Google Docs with your team, move instead to CryptPad. The more you use CryptPad the more addicting it becomes; your collaborated work is encrypted and private. You no longer will have to worry about knowing that Google is capturing all of your collaborated work. You can also start using CryptPad for free.
If you are using Skype for conference calls, switch to Jitsi. Jitsi is even easier to use than Skype. If you use their MeetJitsi feature you can just access the encrypted conferencing via any browser by agreeing with your other party on the same predetermined passphrase.
Don’t use regular text messaging. Rather, use Signal, Wickr, Keybase, or Telegram.
Use a VPN
A VPN (virtual private network) encrypts all of your traffic via a private network of servers scattered throughout the world. This process anonymizes your IP address. Make sure you don’t use your identity when using a VPN- that would just give away your identity as being connected with the VPN servers you are using.
Many VPN providers register your activity and can hand it over to government if they so demand it. They break their promises to their clients all the time. Let’s minimize risk by staying away from the most draconian of jurisdictions.
To lessen this issue, do not ever use a VPN that is based out of any of the 5 eyes:
-United Kingdom
-United States
-Australia
-Canada
-New Zealand
Furthermore, avoid VPNs based out of the following nine countries, that combined with the first 5 make up the 14 eyes:
-Denmark
-France
-The Netherlands
-Norway
-Germany
-Belgium
-Italy
-Spain
-Sweden
No VPN is a complete safeguard. In spite of this, it is still best to use one. We recommend you ONLY use it (turn it on) when doing crypto-related things and only crypto-related things on your regular computer. For your new encrypted hardware computer have it on at all times. If you use it to access an actual bank account, or another personal account (including crypto accounts that require your personal information; read coinbase, or any other exchange) — then, again, the use of the VPN use becomes trite.
Here are six VPN options outside of the 14 eyes that we recommend you research further and use at your own discretion:
NordVPN (Panama)
CyberGhost (Romania)
HideMe (Malaysia)
Astrill (Seychelles)
TrustZone (Seychelles)
iVPN (Gibralter)
Like all things in the market now, some VPNs take Crypto as payment—others do not. It is best if you bought your VPN with crypto not not your credit card, debit card, or paypal.
TOR (The Onion Router)
The Onion Router is software that you use as a browser. It protects you by bouncing your communications around a distributed network- throughout the world- of relays runned by volunteers. This prevents evesdroppers from learning your IP address, spying on you, and disclosing your physical location. TOR also allows you to access sites that are blocked.
You can use TOR and a VPN simultaneously. If you are new to all of this, it is best that you just learn how to use the features of your new computer coupled with your preferred VPN. The use of TOR is a little more complicated and you will have to configure it according the specifications of your preferred VPN. As you begin this process, as long as you are using your VPN correctly you should be fine.
Fincen and crypto-exchanges
ShapeShift is now stuck having to require its users to deanonymize their transactions in order to meet KYC and AML requirements; it pretty clear that they got ShapeShift under the Bank Secrecy Act. Stay away from Shapeshift (sorry @erikvorhees).
“Very disappointed that @ShapeShift_io is implementing KYC. Just goes to show that any centralized entity will be pushed in that direction, which is why LN, atomic swaps and Decentralized Exchanges are the only way to resist a surveillance economics.” - Andreas Antonopoulos
As the news of ShapeShift broke out, the market was quick to answer with alternatives. Among the private centric alternatives to ShapeShift we find Godex, ChangeHero, XMR.TO, and Bisq.
ChangeHero and Godex are pretty much the same business concept as ShapeShift. The only difference is that they do not require you to become transparent. XMR.TO allows you to make BTC payments by using Monero.
That is, by using Monero together with XMR.TO you can pay any BTC address in the world while protecting your privacy.
Bisq is the Best Option
The most important to focus on is Bisq. Bisq is a complete decentralized exchange. Bisq is instantly accessible- there is no need for registration or approval from a central authority. The system is decentralized peer-to-peer and trading cannot be stopped or censored.
Bisq is safe. Unlike MtGox and the rest of centralized exchanges, Bisq never holds your funds. Bisq provides a system of decentralized arbitration with security deposits that protect traders. The privacy is set where no one except trading partners exchange personal identifying information. All personal data is stored locally.
All communication on Bisq is end-to-end encrypted routed over Tor. Upon downloading and running Bisq TOR runs on Bisq automatically. Every aspect of the development of Bisq is open source.
Bisq is easy to use. If you are accustomed to centralized exchanges, you might find Bisq a little different. If you want anonymity and privacy, this is the best crypto exchange we have. Tell your friends about Bisq. Just download Bisq and take it for a test drive, you will feel fresh freedom of entering into peaceful voluntary exchange with your fellow man. Do it, it’s good for the soul.
On Cody
I would like to personally thank all of our subscribers for generously donating to Defense Distributed on our last issue. At the moment of us putting out our last newsletter, DefDist had raised less than 100k USD. After our Newsletter got out, his donations went past 300k USD.
Thank you very much for helping out our friends in their continual fight for freedom!
Please pray for Cody, his friends, and his family.
I once asked Cody what his background was- because idk his mannerisms have always been interesting to me. He answered; “I am Romani- I am a Gypsy.”
Thank you for helping out our Gypsy friend and his band of rebels! They will very much be using your generous donations now that things got much more serious.
If you haven’t donated, please consider donating. Blessings!
By Rafael LaVerde
Excerpt taken from The Dollar Vigilante September 2018 Issue
https://dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TDV-September-2018-Issue.pdf
submitted by 2012ronpaul2012 to C_S_T [link] [comments]

r/bitcoin recap - October 2017

Hi Bitcoiners!
I’m back with the tenth monthly Bitcoin news recap. Last month I couldn’t post as I was travelling a lot and missed a few days of news. Normally seen that's not a problem, but Reddit decided to discontinue historical searches for specific timeframes. I know, I was sad too.
Anyways for those unfamiliar with the recaps, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month.
Now I know the price went absolutely 🥜 this month, but there’s a lot more going on in the space than that!
You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com
A recap of Bitcoin in October 2017
Thanks everyone for fighting the good fight for Bitcoin these past few months. Just one more month and we'll have this 2x drama behind us! Hodl on.
submitted by SamWouters to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Encryption is No Longer an Option - Ways to Restore Your Natural Right to Privacy

Encryption is No Longer an Option
“If the State’s going to move against you, it’s going to move against you. Now, that doesn’t mean you need to be reckless of course. I’m awful careful you guys, and even my degree of care and control ultimately won’t be enough if they get mad enough. There will always be something…I’ve done what I hope is the best any man can do. So…I hope when they finally do get me, it’s obvious that they just made it up. I don’t go out of my way to make it easy.” – Cody Wilson
For all Anarchists our love for freedom unites us and guides us. I recently had a conversation with a mutual friend that Cody and I have in common and he stated something very insightful:
CryptoAnarchy is like the Lord of the Rings. You have to cooperate with people that you don’t know where they are or what they’re up to. That is, you just know that we are all figuring out at the same time on how to take down Sauron.
Anarchy is guided by the natural instinct for self-preservation. You can trust that others are also actively working in keeping us all free.
For us all to move into more synergistic cooperation we need more motivation. Nothing is more motivating than our movement away from an impending harmful evil. The persecution that Cody Wilson has gone through since he started his activism is testament to the evil that awaits the entire world if we do not fight against the impending digital global prison. Just note how easy it was to find Cody. Government indoctrinated brownshirts and surveillance are everywhere.
As Jeff recently said in London, “CryptoAnarchy is about the cryptography.” Cryptocurrency is only possible due to the privacy offered by cryptography. A true cryptocurrency is completely fungible, anonymous, and private. Blockchains without on-chain privacy set by default, are dangerous and offer nothing other than accurate surveillance.
That is, the moment you destroy a coin’s fungibility you corrupt its incentive structure. This is because you would then have two classes of the same coin within a transparent blockchain; these are coins that are “tainted” or “untainted” according to government. This differentiation created by blockchain surveillance leads “tainted” coins to be priced differently from “untainted” coins. Once this happens you destroy the functionality of a currency as a medium of exchange.
Imagine the headache of retailers in having to tell clients that they only accept “untainted” bitcoins. The result of not having a fungible medium of exchange is that you destroy the incentive structure of the network effect of a coin. You simply end up with a useless and unwanted network where value is supposed to be exchanged. If the units within the medium of exchange do not themselves contain the same value in the market, the utility of the network effect is destroyed.
The economic ramifications of non-fungible SurveillanceCoins are so bad that they make fiat currencies of central banks look good. In spite of their centralized proof of government violence, fiat currencies are more fungible and private than a coin based on a transparent blockchain.
For much time within crypto we would call the majority of blockchains as “pseudo-anonymous” because we knew the importance of fungibility. At that time blockchain analysis had not caught up to our technology. Now companies like Elliptic and Chainalysis have made the vast majority of blockchains in the market transparent.
Sadly, most blockchain communities have not upgraded their privacy to be on chain by default- making them transparent. However, some more intelligent communities- like Monero- are at the same time growing because they understand the importance of fungibility.
Please understand that we at TDV are ahead of the pack in understanding where all of this is going. The vast majority of people won’t tell you these harsh truths about the Blockchain space, but it is our moral imperative to inform you as best as possible.
As time goes on, we will continue to champion actual fungible CryptoCurrencies and we will continue to make clear distinctions between a SurveillanceCoin and an actual CryptoCurrency.
It is important that we take a step back from CryptoCurrencies and focus on just cryptography. You can never be too careful. Throughout our groups we have had various requests as to how to better use different wallets.
Yes, we will cover all of that in our upcoming surprise for our community, but what is most important is that you protect yourself at the network layer, your identity, and your communication.
CryptoAnarchy began way before Bitcoin. If you want to know what will be happening to CryptoCurrencies and CryptoAnarchy in the near future, you need to read Timothy C. May’s 1992 prophetic Crypto Anarchist Manifesto.
On reading this, you cannot afford to be idle regarding your privacy. This is not the time for you to easily give up what is most personal about you; your thoughts and identity. Your privacy is sacred. You need to protect your privacy as much as possible at all times. Don’t give into the defeatist notions of future technology being capable of deanonymizing any cryptography you currently use. Your goal is to be private right now in the present moment.
You are up against a global digital tyranny- that is already here!
...Cazes was not a US citizen and the Alphabay servers and Cazes were not caught on US soil. Just because crimes involving narcotic deals took place in America, weirdly enough, the US seemingly has the right above anyone to seize Cazes’ property, and charge him and his accomplices in US trials...
Use Secure Hardware That Protects You
Be paranoid. Stay paranoid. The more paranoid you are the better. Currently the five eyes are moving to strip away all of your privacy. They are on the direct path to force all companies to hand over back doors to software and hardware encryption.
This is a new breach on individual rights. The backdoors in hardware have existed since the 90’s via Trusted Computing and Digital Rights Management (DRM). The difference is that now companies will be fined and forced by governments (all governments) to open up backdoors for the surveillance of all- in both software and hardware. Australia is leading the charge since they are the only ones within the five eyes without a Bill of Rights.
If you really want to be secure, then you need to start with your hardware. Almost all laptops and hardware chips are engineered with unsafe software. These chips can transmit voice, your networking, pictures, and even video signals. Many of these chips are used to install spyware, malware and viruses.
The market has provided us with two easy plug-and-play hardware solutions.
Purism is a CryptoAnarchist company dedicated in offering us the safest computers in the market. Purism’s line of Librem Laptops is manufactured with software and hardware built from the ground up, where you can be at ease knowing there are no back doors built within it. They work with hardware component suppliers and the Free software community in making hardware that respects and protects your security. Every chip is individually selected with emphasis on respecting freedom. (Purism Librem laptops have built in Kill-Switches for your microphone/camera and wireless/Bluetooth)
All of the necessary components that you would have to bundle up together- by yourself- from a community vetted place like Prism-Break are already installed and ready to go within Librem laptops. Even if you were to install all of the necessary open-source encrypted alternatives, you still would not be able to 100% trust your current computer’s hardware.
Purism Librem laptops come with their own PureOS (operating system). Purism also offers compatibility with Qubes OS in a flash-drive (similar to Tails) to give you even another layer of protection on top of PureOS. Qubes OS is what Edward Snowden uses. PureOs is a derivative of Debian GNU/Linux. Qubes is free and open-source software (FOSS).
Purism is currently having a pre-sale for their first phone the Librem 5.
Another popular safe hardware computer market alternative is ORWL. ORWL is a desktop PC. ORWL comes with a physical encryption key that looks like a keychain. If anyone ever tries to physically tamper with the ORWL computer, sensors will automatically detect the intrusion and erase everything. ORWL comes with the operating system options of Qubes OS, Ubuntu, or Windows.
ORWL does not receive payment for their products in Crypto. Purism on the other hand accepts payment in BitcoinCore, BitcoinCash, Litecoin, Ethereum, Decred, Dogecoin, and Monero.
ORWL is a good alternative for more computer savvy people. If you are not the most competent person with computers, Purism is the way to go. With Purism everything is ready to go.
Once you get good hardware don’t use this new computer for anything other than crypto stuff. That is, don’t use it with anything that requires your slave identity. Don’t access social media with your name, don’t access bank accounts, don’t access crypto exchanges, don’t access old email accounts, definitely don’t access anything that requires KYC and AML, and don’t access any identifying log-in that is related to any of your previous internet identities. Create new identities from scratch for this new computer.
Watch this video and learn about the basics on operational security (OPSEC). Take everything written here, and spoken at the conference in the video above, as barely the preliminary basic requirements of OPSEC. You should definitely continue your own research upon getting your new secure hardware computer.
(It would be best if you purchased this computer using crypto- Monero preferably- and have it mailed to a mailing address not associated with any of your addresses; think along the lines of JJ Luna).
Encrypt Your Communication
“This generation being born now... is the last free generation.You are born and either immediately or within say a year you are known globally. Your identity in one form or another –coming as a result of your idiotic parents plastering your name and photos all over Facebook or as a result of insurance applications or passport applications– is known to all major world powers.” – Julian Assange
The vast majority of our community uses Facebook. Unfortunately its network effect is something we all rely on to some degree. Fortunately for us a friend of our community created FaceMask. Through FaceMask we can still use Facebook in complete privacy- away from Zuckerberg's prying eyes. In the near future we will implement FaceMask into our TDV groups as optional privacy for our posts. We will provide our subscribers with the keys necessary to encrypt and decrypt the messages and posts. Again, this is optional. For now please go to the link above and familiarize yourself with Facemask and its technology.
Don’t use Google. If you are using Google start transitioning out of it. If you are using Gmail, start moving towards encrypted services like ProtonMail or TutaNota. They both offer a free option, try them both out and choose your favorite. Use two factor authentication on everything that requires you to log-in that allows for the use of two factor authentication. Most people use Google Authenticator and Authy. I personally prefer the open source options of FreeOTP & andOTP. Use the one that you find best suited for you. Using one is paramount for security nowadays.
If you are one that uses Google Docs with your team, move instead to CryptPad. The more you use CryptPad the more addicting it becomes; your collaborated work is encrypted and private. You no longer will have to worry about knowing that Google is capturing all of your collaborated work. You can also start using CryptPad for free.
If you are using Skype for conference calls, switch to Jitsi. Jitsi is even easier to use than Skype. If you use their MeetJitsi feature you can just access the encrypted conferencing via any browser by agreeing with your other party on the same predetermined passphrase.
Don’t use regular text messaging. Rather, use Signal, Wickr, Keybase, or Telegram.
Use a VPN
A VPN (virtual private network) encrypts all of your traffic via a private network of servers scattered throughout the world. This process anonymizes your IP address. Make sure you don’t use your identity when using a VPN- that would just give away your identity as being connected with the VPN servers you are using.
Many VPN providers register your activity and can hand it over to government if they so demand it. They break their promises to their clients all the time. Let’s minimize risk by staying away from the most draconian of jurisdictions.
To lessen this issue, do not ever use a VPN that is based out of any of the 5 eyes:
-United Kingdom
-United States
-Australia
-Canada
-New Zealand
Furthermore, avoid VPNs based out of the following nine countries, that combined with the first 5 make up the 14 eyes:
-Denmark
-France
-The Netherlands
-Norway
-Germany
-Belgium
-Italy
-Spain
-Sweden
No VPN is a complete safeguard. In spite of this, it is still best to use one. We recommend you ONLY use it (turn it on) when doing crypto-related things and only crypto-related things on your regular computer. For your new encrypted hardware computer have it on at all times. If you use it to access an actual bank account, or another personal account (including crypto accounts that require your personal information; read coinbase, or any other exchange) — then, again, the use of the VPN use becomes trite.
Here are six VPN options outside of the 14 eyes that we recommend you research further and use at your own discretion:
NordVPN (Panama)
CyberGhost (Romania)
HideMe (Malaysia)
Astrill (Seychelles)
TrustZone (Seychelles)
iVPN (Gibralter)
Like all things in the market now, some VPNs take Crypto as payment—others do not. It is best if you bought your VPN with crypto not not your credit card, debit card, or paypal.
TOR (The Onion Router)
The Onion Router is software that you use as a browser. It protects you by bouncing your communications around a distributed network- throughout the world- of relays runned by volunteers. This prevents evesdroppers from learning your IP address, spying on you, and disclosing your physical location. TOR also allows you to access sites that are blocked.
You can use TOR and a VPN simultaneously. If you are new to all of this, it is best that you just learn how to use the features of your new computer coupled with your preferred VPN. The use of TOR is a little more complicated and you will have to configure it according the specifications of your preferred VPN. As you begin this process, as long as you are using your VPN correctly you should be fine.
Fincen and crypto-exchanges
ShapeShift is now stuck having to require its users to deanonymize their transactions in order to meet KYC and AML requirements; it pretty clear that they got ShapeShift under the Bank Secrecy Act. Stay away from Shapeshift (sorry @erikvorhees).
“Very disappointed that @ShapeShift_io is implementing KYC. Just goes to show that any centralized entity will be pushed in that direction, which is why LN, atomic swaps and Decentralized Exchanges are the only way to resist a surveillance economics.” - Andreas Antonopoulos
As the news of ShapeShift broke out, the market was quick to answer with alternatives. Among the private centric alternatives to ShapeShift we find Godex, ChangeHero, XMR.TO, and Bisq.
ChangeHero and Godex are pretty much the same business concept as ShapeShift. The only difference is that they do not require you to become transparent. XMR.TO allows you to make BTC payments by using Monero.
That is, by using Monero together with XMR.TO you can pay any BTC address in the world while protecting your privacy.
Bisq is the Best Option
The most important to focus on is Bisq. Bisq is a complete decentralized exchange. Bisq is instantly accessible- there is no need for registration or approval from a central authority. The system is decentralized peer-to-peer and trading cannot be stopped or censored.
Bisq is safe. Unlike MtGox and the rest of centralized exchanges, Bisq never holds your funds. Bisq provides a system of decentralized arbitration with security deposits that protect traders. The privacy is set where no one except trading partners exchange personal identifying information. All personal data is stored locally.
All communication on Bisq is end-to-end encrypted routed over Tor. Upon downloading and running Bisq TOR runs on Bisq automatically. Every aspect of the development of Bisq is open source.
Bisq is easy to use. If you are accustomed to centralized exchanges, you might find Bisq a little different. If you want anonymity and privacy, this is the best crypto exchange we have. Tell your friends about Bisq. Just download Bisq and take it for a test drive, you will feel fresh freedom of entering into peaceful voluntary exchange with your fellow man. Do it, it’s good for the soul.
On Cody
I would like to personally thank all of our subscribers for generously donating to Defense Distributed on our last issue. At the moment of us putting out our last newsletter, DefDist had raised less than 100k USD. After our Newsletter got out, his donations went past 300k USD.
Thank you very much for helping out our friends in their continual fight for freedom!
Please pray for Cody, his friends, and his family.
I once asked Cody what his background was- because idk his mannerisms have always been interesting to me. He answered; “I am Romani- I am a Gypsy.”
Thank you for helping out our Gypsy friend and his band of rebels! They will very much be using your generous donations now that things got much more serious.
If you haven’t donated, please consider donating. Blessings!
By Rafael LaVerde
Excerpt taken from The Dollar Vigilante September 2018 Issue
https://dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TDV-September-2018-Issue.pdf
submitted by 2012ronpaul2012 to conspiracy [link] [comments]

A Biased View of Ethereum - Wikipedia MEINE BITCOIN TRADING STRATEGIE! Kryptowährungen deutsch ... Introduction Crypto Trading Signals 2020 - BEST Crypto Signals Group on ... Crypto TRADING SIGNALS that work! - YouTube

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A Biased View of Ethereum - Wikipedia

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